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Links to
Explore:
Foundation
Foundation
and Empire
Second
Foundation
Foundation's
Edge
Prelude
to Foundation
Forward the
Foundation
Foundation's
Fear (Second Foundation Trilogy) by Gregory Benford
Foundation
and Chaos (Second Foundation Trilogy) by Greg Bear
Foundation's
Triumph (Second Foundation Trilogy) by David Brin
Fukuyama
Untitled
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Psychohistory: Hari Seldon’s
dead hand? Or is it Adam Smith's dead Hand?
The
purpose here? Provide some insight into what happened to Isaac Asimov's
PSYCHOHISTORY concept. As time progresses, more details will be added.
If you have some thoughts regarding the matter, please do communicate these.
Eventually, we'll discuss a serious theory based on the principles
hinted at by IA.
Some definitions (on the web and
beyond):
http://www.newearth.demon.co.uk/asimov/asht16.htm
Psychohistory: The idea of a mathematical "Laws of Humanics"
parallelling the Laws of Robotics was first posited on Aurora by Giskard
Reventlov and Han Fastolfe, though both realised that it was well beyond
existing knowledge. It did not resurface until the Galactic Empire was in
decline when, at the Decennial Convention on Trantor, Hari Seldon
presented a paper of the theoretical potential of psychohistory as a
mathematics of social change, dealing with the reactions of very large
human populations to social and economic stimuli. This was siezed upon by
various factions as a means of furthering their own political ends, but it
was Daneel Olivaw, then acting the role of Eto Demerzel, Chief of Staff to
Cleon I, who encouraged Seldon to develop psychohistory as a means of
securing a more humane galaxy after the inevitable fall of the
Empire,...
....
Psychohistory had two fundamental axioms; that the number of
people to whom it was being applied should be large enough for a
statistical treatment of them to be valid, and that humanity should not
know the results of the application of psychohistory before the results
were achieved. It was not until after Golan Trevize had intuitively
decided in favour of Galaxia, and met Daneel Olivaw, that he recognised
the hitherto unknown inherent weakness of psychohistory, that it only held
as long as there was only one intelligent species in the galaxy.
http://www.wikipedia.com/wiki/psychohistory
Psychohistory was also the name of a fictional science in Isaac
Asimov's Foundation Trilogy universe, which combined history, psychology
and mathematical statistics to create a (nearly) exact science of the
behavior of very large populations of people, such as the Galactic Empire.
Asimov used the analogy of a gas, where whilst the motion of a single
molecule is very difficult to predict, the mass behavior of the gas can be
predicted to a high level of accuracy.
http://www.psychohistory.com/
Psychohistory, the science of historical motivation, combines the
insights of psychotherapy with the research methodology of the social
sciences to understand the emotional origin of the social and political
behavior of groups and nations, past and present. The center of
psychohistorical research around the globe is The Institute for
Psychohistory, which is headquartered in New York City and has 18 branches
in other countries. The Institute is chartered by the State of New York as
a not-for-profit educational corporation, the Association for
Psychohistory, Inc., and for the past 28 years has published The Journal
of Psychohistory, various books by The Psychohistory Press, and has been
affiliated with the International Psychohistorical Association, which
holds an annual convention. Its director is Lloyd deMause, whose work (see
below for full texts) is used in most college courses in
psychohistory.
from: Organization, Volume 6(4): 591-608, 1999.
Learning from Foundation: Asimov’s Psychohistory and the Limits of
Organization Theory
Nelson Phillips and Stelios Zyglidopoulos
McGill
University and Erasmus University
a paper on on metanarratives and their applicability to organizational
realities.
‘PSYCHOHISTORY . . . Gaal Dornick, using non-mathematical
concepts, has defined psychohistory to be that branch of mathematics which
deals with the reactions of human conglomerates to fixed social and
economic stimuli . . . Implicit in all these definitions is the
assumption that the human conglomerate being dealt with is sufficiently
large for valid statistical treatment. The
necessary size of such a
conglomerate may be determined by Sheldon’s First Theorem . . . A further
necessary assumption is that the human conglomerate be itself unaware of
psychohistoric analysis in order that its reactions be truly random . . .
The basis of all valid psychohistory lies in the development of the
Sheldon functions which exhibit properties congruent to those of such
social and economic forces . . . ENCYCLOPEDIA GALACTICA.’ (Asimov, 1967:
16)
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surprises .... We didn't find discussion or
extensive references to one of the key (non Asimov) novels that uses
Psychohistory as its main tool ... This is of course In
the Country of the Blind by Michael Flynn.
C. Ward, in an amazon review, writes "In
the Country of the Blind is a tense, complex, exciting
conspiracy thriller, highly recommended to all fans of suspense
fiction, secret history, alternate history, and science
fiction.
In the 19th century, the British scientist Charles Babbage
designed an "analytical engine," a working computer that was never
built--or so the world believes. Sarah Beaumont, an ex-reporter and
real estate developer, is investigating a Victorian-era Denver
property when she finds an ancient analytical engine. Sarah
investigates her astonishing discovery and finds herself pursued by
a secret society that has used Babbage computers to develop a new
science, cliology, which allows its practitioners to predict
history--and to control history for its own purposes. And it will
stop at nothing to preserve its secret mastery of human destiny.
Michael Flynn is one of best and most interesting of the modern
hard-SF writers, combining rigorous extrapolation with skilled prose
and strong characterization. In the Country of the Blind is
his first novel, but it was somewhat overlooked when it appeared in
1990, perhaps because it debuted as a paperback original. Now Tor
has reissued the book in hardcover, the format it deserves. This
edition has been slightly revised, and it includes, as an afterword,
Flynn's essay "An Introduction to Cliology," which plausibly
explains the intriguing science the author has created in this
novel."
However -- Looking for CLIOLOGY
yields this fascinating find ... authored by Michael Beck
Cliology
"AI-based
nanosurviellance, which became the basis of an exact historical
recordtaking, and later of simulation of conditions for which there
were not any direct records
Cliology is the study of history taken to the next
level. With the coming of nanotechnology, it became possible for the
first time to truly surveil an entire populace and to store all the
data gathered permanently. Public reaction and fears kept this from
coming to pass, until the nanoswarms came. Constant surveillance was
necessary to survive in the space colonies, where a tiny leak or
nanotech outbreak could spell disaster. Even after the crisis
passed, the fear remained and no one ever really disbanded the
constant surveillance, which humanity carried with it throughout the
First Federation Era and eventually to the stars.
With the coming of picotech AIs, it became possible
to correlate all that stored data and to analyze it for trends, and
cliology was born. Whereas history derives social trends and events
from primary source documents and such things as diaries, cliology
has a record of every single interaction that ever took place and
can therefore make incredible analyses of events. The records do not
always exist--many primitive worlds lost the technology, some
religions such as the Universal Church don't like it, and you can't
surveil the higher order AIs. All the same, cliology has transformed
how people view their pasts." http://www.orionsarm.com/eg/c/Cl-Cn.html
The cliology discussion
above of course is removed from both Asimov's and Flynn vision of
psychohistory, but it is an interesting approach. Certainly it can
stimulate some thinking. |
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Where do we see more
discussion of psychohistory? Another
search yielded the following ... please note, the listing doesn't
imply endorsement or non-endorsement ... simply that
the site appeared in a metasearch
tool.
Psychohistory Was Hari Seldon pulling
our leg?
Psychohistory: Was Hari Seldon pulling our leg? Note: This essay
is based entirely on the first Foundation trilogy. The later books
modify our picture of both psychohistory and certain key events in
galactic history. But the original trilogy stood
http://www.zompist.com/psihist.html
Psychohistory - a game of life and
death set in 1792.
History, science, litreature and psychology combined in a free
educational game. This is a major project for intelligent students
(15+), and discerning adults. It also combines unique mysteries,
lateral thinking, puzzles, role playing, literature an
http://www.spot.com.au/schools/bountygame
Isaac Asimov
Comprehensive collection of
resources pertaining to Asimov.
http://www.asimovonline.com
Clio's Psyche
quarterly publication which studies
psychohistory.
http://www.cliospsyche.com/
SF Site Featured Review: Foundation's
Fear
A review by
Steven Silver of the author's novel that takes place in Isaac
Asimov's Foundation universe.
http://www.sfsite.com/03b/foun29.htm
Professor Howard Schwartz's Papers
Anti-Feminist
Psychohistory Papers.
http://www.sba.oakland.edu/faculty/schwartz/Papers.htm
Foundation and
Chaos
A review of the author's
1998 novel written in Isaac Asimov's Foundation universe.
http://www.geocities.com/Area51/Rampart/2547/skys.htm
Psychohistory Information and
Links
KeyWorlds.com's collection of Psychohistory sites and
links.
http://www.keyworlds.com/p/psychohistory.htm
Basic Conspiracism
101
Public Eye web page from Political Research Associates
provides in-depth information, analysis and news about Right Wing
threats to democracy and
http://www.publiceye.org/b_conspi.html
Allscifi Isaac Asimov
Spotlight
Critical reviews
of Asimov's leading Foundation and Robot novels, including
discussions of themes in his works.
http://www.allscifi.com/Topic.asp?TopicID=12
Planetary Survival and Consciousness
Evolution: Psychological Roots of Human Violence
ABSTRACT: The two most powerful
psychological forces in human history have been without doubt
violence and greed. However, the current global situation has
amplified the consequences involved. More pe
http://www.primalspirit.com/Grof_PlanetarySurvival_art.htm
Accidents waiting to happen
An analysis of
political events and psychological climate in the UK Government from
April 1998 and forecast to September 2000, based on trauma or change
in 6 policy areas.
http://www.eoslifework.co.uk/govtran2k.htm
William Gibson Bibliography /
Mediagraphy
Complete William Gibson bibliography; not just the books, but
his articles, short stories, audio books, and related media
http://www.slip.net/~spage/gibson/biblio.htm
preface FOUNDATIONS OF
PSYCHOHISTORY
Psychohistory is
the science of historical motivation -- no more, no less. It is my
hope that this book will provide the theoretical foundations for the
new science of psychohistory
http://www.psychohistory.com/htm/preface.htm
HIST251 - World History: A
Psychohistory of the Modern World
Academic Year 2001/2002 World History: A
Psychohistory of the Modern World HIST 251 SP In this
lecture-discussion course, we will explore the
http://www.wesleyan.edu/wesmaps/course0102/hist251s.htm
Center for the Study of Mind and
Human Interaction
An interdisciplinary center that practices "preventive medicine"
in the widest sense, CSMHI studies large-group dynamics and issues
such as ethnic tension, war, peace, and diplomacy. Recent and
upcoming events, faculty, and history of group.
http://hsc.virginia.edu/csmhi
Encyclopedia Galactica -
Psychohistory - Contents
Tell
me when this page is updated Psychohistory Definition Assumptions
Psychohistorical Theorems Characters | Galactography | Robotics |
Sociology | Space Travel | Timeline | Chimerical | Contents
Copyright ©1997-9 Mike Carlin Last Modified:
http://members.tripod.com/TerminusCity/psycho
David E. Stannard, Shrinking History
Bactra Review: Occasional and eclectic book reviews by Cosma
Shalizi 53 Shrinking History On Freud and the Failure of
Psychohistory by David E. Stannard Oxford University Press, 1980 A
Strange Illusion of the Recent Past Psychohistory --- the
http://www.santafe.edu/~shalizi/reviews/shrinking-history
Frontier Organizations on the Web A
major list of futuristic organizations in the areas of future
studies, philosophy, personal and social liberation, and advanced
technology.
http://www.lucifer.com/~sasha/org.html
Deutsche Gesellschaft für
Psychohistorische Forschung
http://www.psychohistorie.de/
The Unconscious: A Perspective from
Sociohistorical Psychology
Social psychologist specializing in
cultural psychology, cross-cultural psychology, activity theory,
Vygotsky, social science research methodology, qualitative
methodology, cross-cultural counseling, psychobiology, psychological
anthropology, social
http://www.humboldt1.com/~cr2/uncon.htm
Psychohistory
In the same way that
psychology was extended to cover groups, producing the science of
mob psychology, the idea of psychohistory is to extend the idea even
further to cover the sweeping changes in group psychology over time
to try and use the past and the present to anticipate the general
path of the future.
http://www.xyroth-enterprises.co.uk/psychist.htm
Psychohistory : how could it be done
?
The
modern science of psychohistory began as a literary invention of
Isaac Asimov. He defined it as a branch of mathematics dealing with
the overall reactions of large groups to given stimuli under given
conditions : the prediction of social and political change.
http://www.objectivethought.com/articles/psychohistory.html
Unit Nine Section Three p
1
History - Unit 9 Section 3
Page 1/4 Topic: Psychohistory & Biography One approach to
biography is to understand the psychology of the historical
personage. This section will explore the idea that both explicit
psychohistorical biographies and so-called regular biographies both
attempt to understand the personality of the figure being studied.
The section below discusses the field of psychohistory, by
historian-psychoanalyst Peter Loewenberg. The second section and
third are explicit psychobiographies by Freud and Erikson. The final
section is a highlight on the childhood of Lyndon Johnson by Robert
Caro, that illustrates most writers do attempt some form of
psychological analysis.
http://www.lcsc.edu/SS150/u9s3p1.htm
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Thinking about the future? Think about the recent book by Fukuyam
...
Our Posthuman Future by Francis
Fukuyama is the latest by one of the more significant comtemporary
thinkers.
COLIN McGINN in a recent New York Times Review writes: "Today,
however, we are faced with a new phase in the powers of human technology;
we are on the verge of discovering and implementing an alternative to
evolution itself -- direct intervention in the genetic process. This is
one of the main subjects of Francis Fukuyama's ''Our Posthuman Future,'' a
timely, thoughtful and well-argued contribution to an important subject.
Fukuyama,... discusses cloning, germ-line genetic engineering, stem
cell research, neuropharmacology, anti-aging medicine. His basic concern
is the potential for violations of human nature that spring from the new
biotechnology. Here science, politics and philosophy intersect, as we try
to negotiate the prospect of designer babies, strapping nonagenarians,
interspecies hybrids and the like."
Scientific American states "Fukuyama contends that we need institutions
with enforcement powers "that will discriminate between those
technological advances that promote human flourishing, and those that pose
a threat to human dignity and well-being." Apart from cloning, regulation
is required for preimplantation diagnosis and screening, germ-line
engineering, the creation of human chimeras and the production of new
psychotropic drugs"
Clearly Fukuyama is one peering at Future's Edge ... he may well
be onto a great many insights that could save us from some serious
problems. What do you think?
about Francis F. ... According to his own words, Francis
Fukuyama is Bernard Schwartz Professor of International Political Economy
at the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies of Johns
Hopkins University.
His " The End of History and the Last
Man ", was published by Free Press in
1992 and has appeared in over twenty foreign editions His most
recent book, Our Posthuman Future: Consequences of the Biotechnology
Revolution, was published by Farrar, Straus, and Giroux in April
2002. Fukuyama received his Ph.D. from Harvard in
Political Science, was a member of the Political Science Department
of the RAND Corporation, a member of the Policy Planning Staff of the US
Department of State, (ome of the most influential organizations at state)
a Deputy Director for European political-military affairs, and a
member of the US delegation to the Egyptian-Israeli talks on Palestinian
autonomy. He currently serves as a member of the President’s
Council on Bioethics.
Other areas to explore include:
Principles
of Forecasting - A Handbook for Researchers and Practitioners
(International Series in Operations Research and Management Science,
Volume 30) -- by J. Scott Armstrong (Editor); Hardcove
Understanding Psychohistory implies understanding
personality and motivation, dominance, self-esteem and other personal
psychologies. The master of the philosophy/psychology of motivation is Abraham Maslow. It would
greatly benefit you to explore is pyramid / hierachy of needs leeding to self-actualization.
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